cc: file, Andrea, Tony Hafen, Sara and Des Penny, & Maxine Shirts
"Guess I have some of you used to reading an epistle. There were several comments about how short the Thoughtlet was last week. Maybe it is because I knew I would be tired this week, after adjusting to the new schedule tied to Early Morning Seminary (0402.html). Andrea gets up at 4:30 AM and does her exercises to wake up. Then she has a shower and gets dressed in Sunday dress, and leaves at 5:30, which is when I'm used to getting up. Monday morning I couldn't sleep, and so I got up at 4:30 and started documenting the work Don Vossler and I did the end of last week on direct detection of hydrocarbon depletion halos in the Casey Ranch 3-D seismic survey.
It turns out that Don Vossler (../0340.html and 0402.html) has developed a new seismic attribute he calls NRG (pronounced `Energy'). Last week we created and were looking at some timeslices through a volume of his attributes (horizontal seismic sections parallel to the surface of the work and registered in depth in seismic two-way travel-time). I had created this volume to follow-up on and show Don a lack of seismic response from this attribute immediately surrounding the wells. As I played with the colorbar, the idea came to mind that what these non-NRG areas are are hydrocarbon depletion halos. The two images below, which John Benard gave me permission to share with you all, show a screen capture of the time-slice we were looking at, and a screen capture of a time-slice where the depletion halos have been circled using the HyperEdge Software. One of the biggest exploration developments of the 1970's was at Mobil and Shell, and was DHI (Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators), or Bright Spot Analysis of seismic data. One of the biggest exploration developments of the 1980's was at Landmark Graphics and GeoQuest Systems, and was the seismic workstations, with their ability to better analyze DHI's. One of the biggest exploration developments of the 1990's was at Geophysical Development Corporation, GX-Technologies (spun out of GeoQuest), GeoTrace (Sean McQuaid), and others, and was AVO (Amplitude vs Offset) analysis, used to better quantify DHI's. And here Don and I stumble onto what looks like a way to visualize where hydrocarbons have been extracted from gas and oil reservoirs.
Click on image for larger view
If this in fact turns out to be a correct analysis, it is worth an immense amount of money. And hopefully, with all of the ups and downs I've experienced in my career, I am properly prepared to take advantage of this discovery from a business standpoint. Don has agreed that he will tell no one the basis of his algorithm until they sign a very restrictive confidentiality agreement and pay $500,000 cash up front. Now if we can just keep our finances alive until the first well in Shackelford County proves or disproves our theory.
You may ask, `Why is this important?' It is important because if you know where the hydrocarbons have been extracted, i.e. the extent of the depletion halos, then the inverse tells you where the hydrocarbons have not been extracted. And this means you have a new way of doing DHI exploration. Remember what I wrote above: the biggest exploration development of the 1970'2 was DHI's, of the 1980's was a new tool for evaluating DHI's, of the 1990's was a new way to evaluate DHI's, and so it makes perfect sense that seismic based exploration in this decade could become dominated by depletion halos. Time will tell.
The week actually started off with early mornings last Sunday. Matt and I went to Stake Priesthood Meeting at 7:00 AM. I've always felt good about supporting and sustaining my church leaders. I admit I've not been as positive about Robert Steed, ever since he was put in the Stake Presidency. I interviewed with his Dad during one of my down periods at Mobil Oil in about 1977. His Dad was the Stake President in Casper, Wyoming and was the Chief Geophysicist for that Division of Marathon Oil. He told me I was arrogant and didn't offer me a job. I'm sure a lot of it was because his daughter Kathleen had been in the Dallas 1st Ward, and I had spent a lot of time working with her husband, a Prospective Elder, trying to save the marriage. Her Dad did not like this boy and wanted her to get a divorce, and I had a real hard time reconciling what he was doing with his being the Stake President. President Steed is also a geophysicist and works at Exxon-Mobil Research. He works in visualization, and all of the times I have tried to sell stuff to Exxon-Mobil he has always disappeared when he sees me coming into a meeting. In addition to this background, which is more than any of you wanted to know, he has a high voice that sometimes sounds like he is whining. So when Stake Priesthood opened and he was announced as one of the speakers, I sort of held my breath. Of the talks given last Sunday morning, I pulled two possible Prime Words stanzas from his, and none from any of the others. Once I got past the tone, and listened to the message, it resonated, and I had a spiritual witness I can support and sustain Robert Steed as a member of our Stake Presidency. The stanzas from his words (a) are:
Sunday evening Andrea and I went down to the Bearing building
to listen to a fireside by Senator Orrin G. Hatch. I went
because I mentioned to Swede Nelson Senator Hatch would be
talking, and Swede told me I needed to go make sure he had a
copy of the e-mail I sent back in October about a National
Energy Policy. We went. He is a good speaker, and his
stories were very good. I sensed he exaggerates a little
(`the church has 65,000 missionaries,' then he remembered a
more recent statistic and said, `I guess the number is closer
to 50,000 missionaries now.' Note the first statement was a
30% exaggeration compared to the rest of the sentence.), and
yet I felt the intent of his talk was right on track. I won't
write out my notes. Rather I encourage you each to participate
in a similar fireside if you ever have an opportunity, for
I expect he repeats the stories from his youth and mission
when he gives one of these talks. After the talk I went up
and handed him a hardcopy of the e-mail I sent. There were
a lot of people striving for autographs and to shake his
hand, I couldn't find any words to say, and so I just shook
his hand and gave him the envelope and Andrea and I drove home.
On Monday Bridget sent a nice note, including:
A couple of thoughts concerning Sara Ellyn in Benin. First,
we haven't heard from her since Christmas. Hopefully no news
at least means there is no bad news. Aunt Sara sent a note
asking me to forward all letters from Sara, and saying: ` YES,
please send them to me. I think of her every day.' Me too!
Although I have not been very good at printing and copying
Thoughtlets and getting them in the mail to Sara. Sara, I am
repenting and will get caught up. I got one mailed this week.
Tuesday evening we had the missionaries over. Matt was at a Dare Role Models roller-skating night. Elder Rose expressed some interest in studying geology after his mission. Alan Peterson had pointed out the demographics of our profession and the tremendous need that will become evident with the next upturn in the industry. After dropping off the missionaries, I picked up Matt and took him to the church for the Youth Activities. I went back with Andrea to pick up Matt and talk to Gary Jones. Gary was the first one to recognize the depletion halos in the Vossler processing of the Casey Ranch 3-D survey, although he didn't understand what it was showing at the time. Gary is now working for Tom Smith at Seismic Micro Technology (SMT), and, at Gary's request, I got permission from John Benard for him to use the data as a training set for him to use at SMT. Brian Stine, whose wife is who Andrea is replacing as an early morning seminary teacher, was laughing at Andrea and me because of her call to teach early morning seminary, and the impact this has on everyone in the family. When we were driving home Matt told us a funny story about Brian.
Before I tell the story, I need to point out that Matt dyed his hair a couple of weeks ago. It was suppose to be blonde, and there is an orange tinge to it. Brother Stine had a haircut, which is very short, and he is going bald. On Sunday Matt walked up to him and said, `What did you do, go in for chemotherapy?' Brother Stine responded with, `No, and at least I didn't let anyone pee on my head.' The really good news is Matt was laughing about it when he told us. I admit my mind wondered to wonder where Matt would be in his head if this summer's conspiracy had been successful.
The seminary supervisor from College Station was in one teacher's class on Tuesday, and drove down again Wednesday morning to visit Andrea's class. Third day of teaching and Andrea was nervous. She came home feeling like she had done OK, and by the afternoon was thinking she had really messed up with the class. Then Matt came in after school and just volunteered, `Mom, you did a really good job with your lesson this morning.' It made her day.
Andrea has been mentoring a Mexican girl at Mayde Creek High School, and in the afternoon she took her to Houston Community College, and then up to the new Community College on Barker Cypress Road. It looks like she might be the first person in her family to go to college, largely due to Andrea's weekly visits with her.
We went to the temple in the evening for Ward Temple Night. The Camps were the witness couple, and the Feils, Kellers, Schultzes, Wade Hutchenson, and John Turner were also there. It is fun to talk to friends, especially in the temple.
While there I remembered Ben's birthday. Only three days late. Oh well! So we called Ben on the way home and wished him a happy birthday. Turns out someone stole Sarah's wallet and charged $2,800 in electronics and $1,200 in furniture on her credit card on his birthday. Other than the hassle, it will not cost Ben and Sarah anything. It was nice to hear Ben say, `I can not imagine going into a store and using someone else's credit card. Hopefully each of the rest of you have these feelings Ben expressed.
Thursday morning on The Engines of Our Ingenuity (program #1874) there was a discussion about pre-Clovis people in northern Siberia. I took from John Lienhart (a) and wrote a possible stanza for Prime Words:
John Benard was so excited about the depletion halos. Then
he sent me the following e-mail to forward:
Since it was John, I went ahead and forwarded it to some of you
I thought would find it relevant. John's name was the 267th
name on the list making mine the 268th. Melanie put down names
from the Wright clan to take it to 299, then put her name as the
300th name, and responded. Then she sent me the following, in
two separate e-mails:
Then:
Once again the value of ignoring all spam was driven home to me.
I spent a couple of days working on my Hedberg paper for this summer in Vienna. Larry Cathles at Cornell sent me an e-mail and then we talked on the phone for an hour. He likes some of my ideas, and sees I'm taking this in a different direction than he is aware it has been taken before. Brad Macurda had sent me a book and four folders full of cut out magazine articles about gas hydrates. I went through all of these, and Andrea helped me photograph about 130 digital photos, which will be back-up and reference material for the paper I'm starting to put together. I see this as strategic to the long-term success of Dynamic. Hopefully the short term cash-flow requirements will be met so this plan can be executed. Andrea did find some cheap tickets to Vienna, which need to be purchased in the next week or so. Hopefully hearts will be softened, and it won't be just the two of us on this trip in July.
Speaking of July, Paul and Kate will probably be staying in Utah this summer. Ben and Sarah and Ethan have expressed interest in driving up to Cedar for the 4th or 24th of July. The Hedberg Conference is in Vienna from the 11th to the 14th of July, which is between both of these. The Shirts' are talking about a reunion in Coeur d'Alene Idaho the end of July. I'm interested in knowing if any of the rest of you are interested and think you could meet us in Cedar City for a Roice and Andrea Nelson Reunion, and which would be the best days for each of you.
I also met with Al Lasaine about using Vossler's attribute on his Louisiana prospect. And then I passed the data to Don on Saturday. Tried to load the data on the Landmark and was unsuccessful. Will try again Monday morning when Les is there. Also want to reload the Casey Ranch 3-D survey to remove the red spikes which show up in the vertical sections through the data. Oh well!
Saturday night Andrea and I watched a 1956 movie with John Wayne about an American Boxer who moved back to Ireland where he was born. It is called `The Quiet Man.' I really liked it. Andrea really did not like it, because of how he treated his wife. I told her it made me thankful for how well Uncle Des treats Aunt Sara, if that was a proper view of the culture of Ireland, which I expect it was. Bridget and Brian, and Sara and Des, if you haven't seen this movie, I'd be interested in your comments on it if you rent it and review it.
Today was quiet. Church is now at 9:00 AM. Matt blessed the sacrament today for the second time. He did a wonderful job, and both Andrea and I had several people comment on the spirit they felt as he blessed the sacrament. Marion Pickerd was released as Gospel Doctrine Teacher and Greg Branning was put in. I thought Brannings were moving to Utah, and obviously not. Marion did a very good job, and Greg is a good teacher. I will continue to look forward to going to Gospel Doctrine. The new Priesthood / Relief Society Manual is on Heber J. Grant. I read the first couple of chapters this morning, as I substituted in Primary last week. It reads good, with exceptional spiritual insights. Scott Whitrock and I Home Taught the Riches, Hayden Hudson, and the Schmidts. Good visits all around. And then I came home and wrote this, called several of you kids, and answered an e-mail to John Benard about our meeting tomorrow to discuss depletion halos."