. . .

Flakey back-of-the-envelope Risk Analysis

by Laura Kay Ethetton, PetroValue

Geotechnical Risk Components in the Reconnaissance Stage:

• Source: 0.5
• Reservoir: 0.7
• Trap: 0.7
• Seal: 0.5
• Migration: 0.5

• Ps (Probability of Success): 6%

Can not derive economic value, recommend farm-out.

To VR in Geoscience '97 Paper

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