01 Dec 2002 #0248.html

Ethan and Treasure Planet

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Dear Paul and Kate, Melanie and Jared, Bridget and Justin, Sara, Ben and Sarah, Heather, Audrey, Rachel, and Matt via hardcopy,

cc: file, Tony Hafen, Pauline Nelson via mail, Sara and Des Penny, and Maxine Shirts

Welcome to "Thoughtlets." This is a weekly review of an idea, belief, thought, or words that will hopefully be of some benefit to you, my children, with an electronic copy to on-line extended family members. Any of you can ask me not to clutter your mail box at any time.

"Saturday afternoon Ben and Ethan drove up from Galveston to visit. We went to Ethan's first big screen movie: Treasure Planet. Ethan lasted about an hour before he was ready to run around. Ben went out with him. It was an interesting experience, watching my son go out with a squirmy toddler, and remembering the years of struggling with squirmy toddlers.

I've already referenced the time Roice yelled out, `Don't spank me!' as I carried him out of a packed sacrament meeting in Maplewood 2nd Ward (../0046.html). Despite the embarrassment of moments like this, and as hard as it is on young parents to get their kids to sit still during times like church meetings, I see great wisdom in having a regular schedule where kids are encouraged to control their bodies. I also recognize how this backfires, if the kids only learn to sleep during these quiet times, and thereby miss the message. Life is full of such fine lines between over and under control.

Ethan is such a happy young man. He always has such a nice smile. He was a little shy when he first came into the house, and it took about 15 minutes for him to warm up to us. Once he did, it was off to the races. As they left I looked at Andrea and expressed my gratitude for her wisdom in guiding our decision not to have any more children. I don't do a very good job in keeping up with Matt, and I'm sure I would not do near as good of a job as Ben is, in keeping up with a dynamo like Ethan. In some ways it is sad to get old and to find myself slowing down. And life has always been like that. The new replacing the old, hopefully improving with each generation, until we come to a perfect day.

Treasure Planet is a very good movie. It is dark (space) compared to Shrek (sunshine), and the story line was too old for Ethan. However, he will enjoy growing up with it, just as you kids enjoyed growing up with `The Little Mermaid.' There was only a couple of songs, and so it is different from other Disney movies. It still has my recommendation. I won't give away the story line, other than to recommend reviewing `Treasure Island' before going to see it.

Upon a couple of seconds of reflection, I see myself as not much different from the three main characters, each of whom were after the treasure on Treasure Planet. Sometimes I feel closer to the treasure than others. This has been a good week. There were a rash of e-mails and phone calls early in the week, and finally I got confirmation that Emerald will continue their retainer for November. It looks good for them getting an investment in stock, which will give them cash for operations, and allow the retainer to become a regular salary for the foreseeable future. In addition, the Cook Inlet Project has come together, and it looks like there will be cash and an Overriding Royalty Interest in any discoveries. Hopefully we will get started on this by the middle of next week. The Montana Blackfoot Indian Reservation Project looks like it might start within a couple of weeks. Lastly the Price-Waterhouse folks have contacted me about the PetroChina project. Looks like it is going to start tomorrow, and I have 5 days to get the first part of my work for them done. The follow-up meetings will be from the 6th-9th of January in Beijing. Paul and Kate have submitted paperwork for passports and are deciding if they can afford the time to go, plus I haven't got it tied down as to whether they will provide one or two extra tickets if I fly coach. All in all next week is going to be very busy. When it rains it pours.

Ben and I had a fun e-mail correspondence early in the week. It started when he responded to a comment in last weeks Thoughtlet (0247.html) with:

`Just a quick response on gas prices. How did the guy who got to $5.00 feel about LNG? Basically, I view LNG as a cap on gas price b/c as prices reach around $3.50, LNG becomes economical. While there will be short term variations, if the long term price stays much above this price, I think you will see a strong push to increase capacity at LNG facilities and this will keep the long term price of gas around $3.50 for at least a while. Sorry I missed your call on Sunday. I was at my championship soccer game (which we won 3-2). I'll call you later this week to give you our schedule for Thanksgiving and try and coordinate a good time that we can come by and visit. Love you, Ben'


I responded with:

`Ben, The issue is supply. Alberta has been the swing supplier. Pool size distribution has declined from 30BCF/well to 2-3BCF/well (Billion Cubic Feet per well). They have run their reserves from 28 years to 9 years. The typical well used to take 5 years to deplete, and now they deplete in 18 months. They have reached their total natural gas production. Once it is approved it will take 7-8 years to bring a pipeline from the McKinsey Delta and North Slope. That gas will probably be used as a surfactant to extract oil from the heavy tar sands. Mexico is becoming a significant as importer. LNG requires long term contracts, and "electric utilities are reluctant because of $1.50/MCF coal and nuclear." (Note MCF=Thousand Cubic Feet of Gas.) Most likely there will be two terminals put into Mexico, and none in the U.S. From a separate source, I'm aware there are plans to put an LNG plant on OPL-229 in Nigeria, which, 5 years from now, will be of great benefit to Emerald. I expect it would be worth everything it costs to have Henry Groppe come and talk to the decision makers at your company, and review the statistics in detail. Love, Dad'


Ben came back with:

`I agree with you that the issue is supply and the Canadian imports are not looking like they are going to keep up. However, I think there are two things that will make LNG become much more important. First, in response to the $1.50/MCF for coal and nuclear, I agree. But, nearly every new power plant being built is gas fired. Nuclear will continue to have a hard time getting permits and the high capital costs to build make it difficult for new plants to be economical in a competitive wholesale environment. There have also been few coal plants built in recent years b/c of environmental legislation. There is currently legislation proposed for multi-pollutant reductions, including Mercury which will likely cause problems for a lot of utilities (particularly TXU which is the largest polluter of mercury in the US due to its lignite plants, which will become obsolete if the mercury regulations are strict b/c they will be too expensive to upgrade). Second, high electricity prices are politically unacceptable. With gas being the swing fuel for power generation and therefore the price setter in most regions (other than the midwest for most of the year), I suspect it will get very political when/if gas prices reach $5 - $6. Since nuclear and coal have environmental risks and people are becoming more sensitive to these risks, I think the lesser of two evils in most peoples minds will be the use of LNG. Additionally, I think more utilities are going to be keen to enter into long term contracts for gas in an effort to manage risk. With all of the issues facing the industry right now, more and more companies are switching to long term contracts as a way to hedge. Additionally, you see companies like El Paso which have developed the ability to build regasification plants off shore and pipe it in from there to ease the permitting process. While it will take time to permit and build (particularly with terrorist threats), I think it will be the political move that will solve the issue. So, while prices could/will likely increase in the near term, I don't see the long term price of gas getting higher than $4.'


My next response was titled `Wanna Bet?' and stated:

`Ben, I don't bet, except on sure things, like UH, Landmark Graphics, HyperMedia, Continuum Resources, Dynamic Resources, Emerald Energy, etc. And yet your e-mail brings out the gambler in me. Bet you US$5.00 gas prices are US$5.00 by 01April2002, and US$5.00 each April 1st thereafter, if the previous average annual gas price is not higher than US$5.00. Now we will find out what you really think! Love, Dad'


Ben came back 3 hours 44 minutes and 54 seconds later with:

`I'm up for a $5 bet. But, we need to lay a few ground rules. First, I want median gas price, not average - I agree there will be spikes and I don't want that skewing the data. Second, I assume the bet is $5 per year (e.g. if on each April 1 going forward the price agreed on is less than $5, then I win, and if its more than $5, then you win). Third, the bet continues indefinitely with the individual option for either bettor to cancel the bet at any time before April 1. Finally, we need to decide the hub for gas pricing. I don't know that I am ready to commit to this off the top of my head, b/c I don't know the pricing differentials between hubs. Here's my guess going forward - I will win next year, you will win the two or three years after that, and I will win every year going forward for at least 10 years. Bring it on! Ben'


I'll keep you all posted on what happens. I expect this discussion might even deserve it's own web page.

Wednesday evening Andrea and I went to see The Emperor's Club. This is a first class movie about the power of teachers, and about the free-will of students. For you kids, I would recommend this movie about Treasure Planet. It makes you think more than is just entertaining. Sort of like when we sent wedding presents to Rick and Pat Hawthorne's daughter, and the Osborne's in Iowa. Riley and I met the Jan Osborne in 1970 the summer we roomed together in Denver. This was before my mission. I have traded Christmas cards with Jan ever since. And now her daughter is getting married. We are living within our budget, and so they got a $20 Target Gift Certificate. The funny part of this story is Melisa Hawthorne is marrying Jeremy James Osmond, one of Donny Osmond's kids, and the announcement requested `evening attire.' Our gift seems kind of quaint. Paul and Kate, you might want to crash the party and say hi to Rick and Pat for me. The reception is at 7:00-9:30 Monday evening, the 2nd of December, in the Provo Marriott at 101 West 100 North. If you do, remember, evening attire, and your Dad gave by mail to Florida.

Thanksgiving was quiet. Holidays are a hard time for Matt, and I expect they are a hard time for several of the rest of you. We had a `discussion' Thursday morning, and it all seemed to turn out very good. I am very proud of how well Matt is doing. Matt, David Moore, Andrea, and I went downtown to the George R. Brown Convention Center and volunteered to help feed the needy. We were assigned to be part of a human shield guiding folks from the tables to where there were lots and lots of clothes for folks to take for free. It is sad to see people in need. It is a basic principle of the Gospel and of life to help those in need. However, this does not mean entitlements are justified, where folks get something for free and do not have to do anything but eat, drink, use the bathroom, and pick up their food stamps. The sad thing to me is that many of these folks are in the circumstances they are in because they have been on the dole, and it is comfortable. Later in the Day Matt volunteered he should have taken his old sweater he has grown to big for down to give to some of the needy folks. This is what Thanksgiving is all about.

About 15 minutes before we left there was a college senior who came up and talked to us. Several of her friends had been handing out pamphlets explaining what Islam is about. I asked her what the skull caps the young men were wearing are called. They are kufi, and are quite similar to the Jewish Yamaka's. It turns out she has been quite a spokesperson for Islam, both before and after September 11th. There was a special on her life on PBS that evening. During our conversation she mentioned she was giving a keynote speech at the University of Utah in a few weeks. I asked her to spend at least half a day on temple square and to learn about the prophet and the book. She agreed to e-mail me her comments about her visit. It was interesting to see her reaction, when I referred to Mormonism as Islamic Christianity. It will be interesting to see if she follows up on our conversation.

Our Thanksgiving dinner was a feast. There was just the four of us at the table, and there was enough food for at least a dozen. It was sure good. Andrea does know how to put on a feast. The leftovers we have had all weekend have been very good. In fact, we were eating the last of the turkey yesterday when Ben and Ethan arrived to go see Treasure Planet. Thursday evening we watched a Russian movie with English subtitles. It was called `Solaris' and was made in 1972. What with the ebony carving I am doing, it is hard to follow a movie where the audio is all in subtitles. I got a bit of a feel for what the movie is about. Although I haven't seen the current movie that is playing, based on the previews, and this preview, my expectations are this will not be one of my favorite movies (../9729.html), even though it is based on science fiction.

I have had a credit on British Airways for several years that was going to expire the end of November. There is a conference in June in London which I want to attend about Biogenic or Abiogenic origins of oil. And so I traded my credit in and paid the difference to purchase tickets for myself, Sara, and Audrey to go to London on the 7th of June and return on the 23rd of June. Ben and Sarah are going to be in the south of France around the same time, and hopefully one of my projects will be a home run and there will be money to buy a ticket for Andrea before the time comes. Anyway, I have talked to Sara and Audrey about this as their graduation present, and you both seemed pleased.

Speaking of pleased, when I called my Mom tonight she went on and on about Paul and Kate and Grant coming to visit. She was also pleased about the nice letter and pictures Melanie sent. She thinks Colby Cade looks like Grant Matthew. I told her I think he looks like Jared. Mom was also pleased to get a nice letter and drawing from Heather. I am proud of each of you who made this effort. Thanks. Hopefully I have taught each of you the value of giving. After all, my love language is gifts. Hopefully none of you are going to get caught up in games where because you don't like what someone gave you at a past Christmas, or because you don't accept the fact Andrea and I remarried after having been thoroughly rejected by our spouses, you are going to `get even' by creating discord and bad feelings. If either of these are true, please note, it does not please me.

In thinking about the villains and the heroes in the movie Treasure Planet, and pretty much all other aspects of life, we have to have the negative in order to appreciate the positive. Ben had to take Ethan out of his first big screen movie, because he was not going to sit still, mostly because he wasn't old enough to follow the story line. As Ben described Ethan playing on the stairs at the back of the theater, I could see a great mind working. Not Ben's, Ethan's. Ben said Ethan would look up the stairs at all of the lights along the edge, then he would crouch down to change the perspective, then stand up, then crouch down. Two years old and already he is studying the laws of physics. You never know what will come out when you mix two things like Ethan and Treasure Planet."

I'm interested in sharing weekly a "thoughtlet" (little statements of big thoughts which mean a lot to me) with you because I know how important the written word can be. I am concerned about how easy it is to drift and forget our roots and our potential among all of distractions of daily life. To download any of these thoughtlets go to http://www.walden3d.com/thoughtlets or e-mail me at rnelson@walden3d.com.

With all my love,
Dad
(H. Roice Nelson, Jr.)

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Copyright © 2002 H. Roice Nelson, Jr.