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... II. The Framework ...
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Probability
Probability is the strong likelihood or chance of something occurring. Probabilistic analysis is one of the
foundations of the scientific method. Nuclear energy, astrophysics, biology, data mining, nuclear physics, portfolio analysis, and other areas
of science do not provide precise deterministic predictions of all the natural phenomena studied in these areas. The mathematics of probability
does yield useful results in each of these scientific fields. 2.2
Science often decomposes processes and things to a number. This tendency was part of the tongue-in-cheek in “A Hitch-Hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.”
In this book we are taught that after 7 ˝ million years of computing on the “second greatest computer of all time and space, the ultimate answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything was
calculated to be 42.” 2.3
Probability provides methodologies for making sense out of and understanding gigantic as well as microscopic numbers. To help us better understand
these numbers, mathematicians multiply a number like 42 by powers of 10. Thus 4,200 is 42 *102. And 4,200 BC happens to be the time when Egyptian astronomy
created the first 365 day calendar. 2.4 At the other end of the scale, 4,200 Angstroms is equal to 4.2 x 10-9 meters,
which is the wavelength of violet colored light.
To personalize gigantic numbers, at an age of 56, it is quite humbling to think of this age in terms of months, days, hours, minutes, or especially seconds:
- 56 * 12 months/year = 6.72*102 months
- 56 * 365.25 days/year = 2.0454*104 days
- 56 * 365.25 days/year * 24 hours/day = 4.91**105 hours
- 56 * 365.25 days/year * 24 hours/day * 60 minutes/hour = 2.95*107 minutes
- 56 365.25 days/year * 24 hours/day * 60 minutes/hour * 60 seconds/minute = 1.77*104, or 1,767,225,600 seconds.
Almost 2 billion seconds is a lot. And yet this number is insignificantly small compared to the number of possible neural connections in the brain of any person on the planet.
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